Central Standard Time

Sleepers for Week 13...Shhhh

Adrian Peterson RB Chicago, thats right not Minnesota! Benson out Peterson in. Grab him quick if you can.

If you are completely out of wide receiver choices, Javon Walker WR Denver, who has been out since week 3 will see more action in week 13

Andre Hall RB Denver Selvin Young will probably play but Hall is sure to see some action also. Denver plays 32nd ranked rush defense Oakland in week 13. They will probably both score!

Patrick Cobbs RB Miami could be another super sleeper with Chatman injured and Williams out for the season after 6 plays in Pitt Monday Night. Miami has a great rushing line for whoever runs for them. They face 3oth ranked New York Jets rush defense this week. If you are short at RB Cobbs might be a good alternative.



Wednesday, October 24, 2007

NFL Confidence Picks - Week 8

NFL Confidence Picks for Week 8:
The first numbers are the confidence points, next is the winning team, next is the losing team. These stats are based on pure stats with a final bump based on home field advantage. Five of the picks are upsets against the bookie odds; they are listed below.

Good Luck With Your Picks! ///Shredd1

13___Pittsburgh Steelers_____@CIN
12___Cleveland Browns______@STL
11___Indianapolis Colts______@CAR
10___San Diego Chargers_____HOU
9____Tennessee Titans______OAK
8____New York Giants______@MIA
7____Green Bay Packers_____@DEN____Upset
6____New England Patriots___WAS
5____Philadelphia Eagles_____@MIN
4____Detroit Lions_________@CHI____Upset
3____San Francisco 49ers____NOS____Upset
2____Jacksonville Jaguars____@TBB____Upset
1____Buffalo Bills__________@NYJ____Upset
Posted by at

2 comments:

Charles Senescall said...

Respectfully, I have to really wonder about the methodology here. It appears as if you are taking favorites by strength and ranking these in order, instead of counter-acting these favorites with opposing strength.

My confidence table looks like this (I give percentage chances of victory for my favoite, by the way, although my favorite is not necessarily the commonly favored team); let's hope I can do this correctly.

Favorite Percentage Victory Chance: Underdog
Chicago 50.55252989 Detroit
New England 53.94151667 Washington
Jacksonville 51.45538191 Tampa Bay
Tennessee 52.87231931 Oakland
Indianapolis 54.01917751 Carolina
San Diego 53.33054014 Houston
Minnesota 53.10861614 Philadelphia
Buffalo 54.66038873 NY Jets
San Francisco 55.13418493 New Orleans
NY Giants 59.68478242 Miami
Pittsburgh 61.3723013 Cincinnati
Green Bay 67.31524465 Denver
Cleveland 68.19434594 St. Louis

I don't understand how your picks of Philly and Detroit can be mathematically defended. I have Chicago & Minnesota as statistically stronger, although not by much.

October 28, 2007 at 1:14 AM
Shredd1 said...

I wanted to answer your comment on my webpage http://fantasyfootballextrapoint.blogspot.com/
Im still kind of new to this Blog website and I missed your post last week. When I pick weekly confidence points I rank pass & rush offenses and pass & rush defenses by yards/game & touchdowns (most rankings are based only on the yards/game like the NFL or USA Today). I then subtract these rank numbers against who they are playing creating a formula much like this (Off pass rank Team1 - Def pass rank Team 2) + (Off rush Team 1 - Def rush rank Team2)for every team that plays that week. I then cross-reference the other teams results so I end up with a perfect curve that gives the highest score to the best outcomes, or in other words a "confidence" hierarchy. All this is stats-based but tweaked to include touchdowns. This is still experimental, but my results overall have been good on the number of picks correct, but bad confidence-wise. Thanks for checking out the site.
///Shredd1

November 5, 2007 at 6:02 PM

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)

You gotta love this stiff-arm Shaun Rogers puts on Selvin Young!!!